IPS contributes to strategic foresight on radicalisation trends in the Nordic Region

During two foresight workshops on the extremist landscape in the Nordic region by 2035, 16 leading P/CVE experts and professional foresight practitioners worked side by side in the first foresight project of the EU Knowledge Hub on Prevention of Radicalisation. 

On 22-23 September, Pedro Liberado, Chief Research Officer & Coordinator of the Radicalisation, Violent Extremism and Organised Crime Portfolio at IPS Innovative Prison Systems, together with Bruna António, Consultant & Researcher in the same portfolio, took part in the first foresight workshop examining the extremist landscape in the Nordic region in 2035.

The event, held in Aalborg, Denmark, was part of the Nordic Foresight Project — a pioneer initiative within the Foresight Services of the EU Knowledge Hub on Prevention of Radicalisation, implemented for the first time.  The two-day workshop convened 16 leading P/CVE experts and professional foresighters, who worked jointly to sketch out four contrasting scenarios: societal growth, collapse, discipline, and transformation.  

This was followed by a second workshop, held on 21–22 October in Helsinki, Finland. During this session, Nordic experts revisited the future scenarios developed in the previous workshop and stress-tested current policies and practices in the P/CVE field. The aim was to identify what remains resilient, what becomes obsolete, and what new opportunities may emerge. 

The workshops stood out for their fresh and innovative approach, navigating a broad spectrum of plausible futures and resulting in a high level of expert engagement. Next steps include consolidating insights while sustaining momentum for the strategic application of foresight methodologies in the P/CVE field across the EU.   

Strategic foresight is an excellent tool to anticipate possible futures and plan accordingly. Under the EUKH, it is possible to implement a number of activities ranging from designing and co-implementing strategic foresight projects to strategic and tailored consultancy to support decision and policymaking.

These services form part of the operational rollout of the EU Knowledge Hub on Prevention of Radicalisation, an initiative launched by the European Commission bringing together a consortium of organisations, including IPS, to strengthen cooperation and innovation in preventing radicalisation and violent extremism across Europe. The Nordic Foresight Project demonstrates the Hub’s ambition to use forward-looking tools to guide policy and practice. 

About the EU Knowledge Hub on Prevention of Radicalisation

This initiative is led by NTU International A/S (Denmark) with IPS Innovative Prison Systems (Portugal) among its key partners, which include the Polish Platform for Homeland Security, the Euro-Arab Foundation for Higher Studies (FUNDEA, Spain), the Center for Security Studies (KEMEA – Hellenic Ministry of Citizen Protection), the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, the European Research and Project Office (EURICE, Greece), Deep Blue, the European Centre of Studies and Initiatives (CESIE, Italy), and the Romanian National Intelligence Academy “Mihai Viteazul”.

The EU Knowledge Hub on Prevention of Radicalisation, guided by the European Commission (DG Home), will focus on supporting EU Member States and stakeholders in the development and implementation of effective strategies to combat radicalisation. Its core mission is to consolidate and disseminate knowledge and expertise as well as to support Member States in developing strategies and practices in this field. This initiative builds upon the foundational work of the Radicalisation Awareness Network (RAN), initiated by the Commission in 2011.